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Update: With the Round 2 supplemental allocation of $310 billion, we believe the PPP program will likely not need a third round of funding. See our latest analysis here.
On April 16 in the AM EDT the SBA announced that the fund for the SBA loan PPP program has been exhausted.
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Sources/Notes regarding calculator assumptions
(1) The Small Business Administration (SBA) and the U.S. Census Bureau estimates 60 million employees working for employers with 500 or less employees. Also, there are 5.5 million employees who work in Accommodation and Food Services (businesses classified with NAICS codes that start with 72). A portion of these 5.5M may be covered under their employer’s PPP loan as the 500 FTEs limit for these workers is calculated on a per location basis.
(2) The Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates average salary is $53,490. With a $100,000 cap on wages for PPP calculation purposes, the effective average FTE cost is likely lower that $53,490 (since the amount over $100,000 is excluded). Senator Marco Rubio tweeted that activity through 4/9/20 indicated 480,000 loans totally $124 billion was approved. The $124 billion covered approximately 12 million workers, so this implies average salary and benefits for the first 480,000 loans of $49,600. We rounded to $50,000 for salary and benefits (e.g., heathcare costs, retirement benefits, and state and local taxes paid by the employer).
(3) The National Federation of Independent Businesses survey indicates 70% have already attempted to apply “with varying degrees of success” while an additional 10% will apply in the next month. Factors that will reduce participation below 100% include a) some small businesses will opt for EIDL loans instead of PPP loans and 2) some will have gone out of business and not attempt to restart 3) some will not qualify.
Other information
(1) We were only 18 hours off with our prediction of when the funds would be fully allocated for this program. We predict the proposed $250 billion supplemental to this program will run out in less than a week (likely 4 to 5 days).